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Week of November 15, 2021
Here is what is happening in commodities this week:
Lumber……. It has been a wild week, Monday and Tuesday the lumber market was quiet with most buyers sitting on the fence and watching their inventories run down. Wednesday morning news of the impact of heavy rains in BC caused some to pause and decide they should cover a few loads just in case supply became crimped. The volume of inquiry was massive and mills and wholesalers were overwhelmed with inquiry and sales were brisk.
Order files and pricing moved quickly and in a matter of hours mills were sold out and pricing was up as much as 60/m on some items. Today was another active day and mill files vary from Late Nov. but most are now Mid- December. Lumber futures have been strong, US housing numbers this week were solid and mills are now adding roughly 10 % on orders to cover duties that will be applied to shipments going US by the end of the month.
Can we go higher? Can we go higher? Time will tell.
Plywood…… Like its lumber cousin plywood has had a very good week. Early this week mills were quoting Dec 6th shipment and today they have been able to extend files to Jan 10th week.
Pricing has increased roughly 6% as this week has progressed. Many yards were light on plywood and need to buy and it appears many have done that this week. Will it continue to run?
One producer told me that they will shut the tap off soon as memories of the spring collapse are still fresh in many folks minds. As he put it, they will pull off the market in attempt to protect buyers from themselves.
As you will recall long order files and uncontrolled pricing was fun for a while, but man did it hurt after the party was over.
OSB……. Files are Mid December with some loads popping up for prompt shipment. There appears to be some softening in OSB and pricing varies quite a bit depending on who you talk to and what their position in the market is.
Will road and rail disruptions have an impact on OSB ? Lots of wood heads to the coast so it will be interesting to see how quick supply routes can be reestablished. If it takes too long that could have a negative effect on pricing as mills scramble to find homes for production. Or do they curtail for a few weeks and pricing climbs as folks would then be tight on supply. Like I said it is going to get interesting.
Have a great week and feel free to contact your friendly Mayfair representative for further updates and pricing.