LUMBER The market firmed up to mill asking levels a week or so ago, which…
Here is what is happening in commodities this week.
Before we get into product lines we should once again address trucking issue’s. Chances are you have been affected by loads that are running late and if you haven’t been affected you soon will be.
Many loads are running 4-6 weeks late and it doesn’t matter what zone you are shipping from whether it be BC, Alberta or Saskatchewan there are delays everywhere and of course costs have gone through the roof.
This problem is likely the biggest factor in the price appreciation on all product lines. Couple that with that the fact the demand in the field remains strong, US housing #’s were out yesterday and their markets like ours are busy.
When order files are mentioned below that references the week the stock should be produced, getting it shipped is a whole other timeline.
Lumber…..Order files are mid to late Feb in most cases and prices continue to climb albeit not at the same pace as previous weeks. Many yards are covered for FEB and are sitting on the fence waiting to see what prices will do for March.
Buyers are nervous about the pricing and are wondering if these levels are sustainable for any length of time. Given demand from the field and shipping issue’s it appears this market can go higher, the question is at what point to projects get put on hold as
costs soar not just on commodities but on all products in the building industry. Inflation on everything we buy is real, be it lettuce or lumber you are paying more for it leaving less in your pocket. Governments are and will be raising interest rates thru 2022.
What would a 2% interest hike do to our housing market? Time will tell but for now the next few months it looks like higher prices are here to stay.
Plywood……Mills are OTM and it is nearly impossible to source any wood, many of us are waiting on loads that were due in early December. Order files are early to Mid – March and pricing is hard to pin down as there is nothing to buy.
There are contract loads finding their way to the market and secondaries are commanding a premium for that stock. Watch for this trend to continue until shipping issue’s ease.
OSB……Similar story to plywood, very hard to source and pricing continues to rise. LP claimed Force Majeure at one of their BC mills, they just could not ship stock and were forced to close. Will we see that from others?
Possibly, OSB mills only have so much storage room and when that hits capacity they have a problem. Secondaries are able to command huge premiums on what little stock is available.
We can hope the absenteeism that US mills are experiencing will subside and production levels will normalize and prices will correct. When that will be? Who knows but until then fasten your seat belt it is going to be a bumpy ride.
Have a great week and please contact your friendly Mayfair representative with any questions you have.