LUMBER The market firmed up to mill asking levels a week or so ago, which…
Here is what is happening in commodities this week.
Lumber…..Mill files vary from late Feb to mid-March. Last week futures had a multi-day slide, this week is the opposite with multiple limit up days so the market is confused and looking for a direction. There is a lot going on from inflation and interest rate worries
to trucking issues that are messing with inventory plans and deliveries to jobs. Early this week the pace at the mills was quieter and there has not been much change in pricing at those mills. Print was down 20/m at Mid -Week on 2×4 and will likely be down another 20-25/m tonight for 40-50/m for the week.
We have seen some offerings from secondaries that are offered below replacement and it appears these offerings are loads that have been sitting at the mills (due to lack of trucks) and are priced behind todays market. Secondaries offering those loads are of the opinion that the market may experience a correction and are reducing their positions. Important to remember that the depth of those positions is shallow and they should move thru the system quickly.
On the flip side mills with longer order files are content to sit and watch to see buyers next move. Yards across the prairies are busy and given supply problems it would be unwise to wait until you see the pavement before order you your next load.
Today we are seeing strong inquiry and any prompt loads at getting snapped up. If you need lumber today maybe your chance.
Plywood….Is a mess, production weeks are Mid to late March but when it will ship is a whole other question. Most mills are still OTM and pricing has been climbing despite not much in the way of sales at the mill level.
It would appear that Plywood will be a mess for weeks if not evens months to come. Yards are absolutely dying for stock so when mills do have wood to offer they will no doubt be able to command a prem over print.
OSB……..Order files are Late Feb to Early March. Pricing has been on a pretty steady rise and that trend will continue again this week. Price is becoming a concern on this product line. If you recall last May OSB peaked around 1900/m on a 3/8 basis so is there room to go higher?
Perhaps, but we are beginning to see some resistance in some markets and some multi projects may be placed on hold as cost continue to rise. Rail and truck problems continue to plague the OSB market and mills are running 2-4 weeks behind on shipments into some zones.
We have mentioned in previous updates that storage can be a problem for OSB mills and their yards are full so will we see curtailments until shipments begin moving ? Or does pricing become prohibitive and pricing corrects?
Time will tell.
Have a great week and feel free to contact us with any questions or inquires you may have.