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Here is what is happening in commodities this week.
Lumber…….Limit up futures for multiple days has been on everyone’s radar. The spread between futures and cash was over 300/m a week ago and now the two are almost parallel. That will change tonight as print will no doubt be up considerably.
Print was up 50/m on 2×4 at Mid-Week and will no doubt be up another 50/m if not even maybe 100/m tonight for a range of 100/m to 150/m for the week. Each day this week the pace has been building and today was absolutely crazy.
Shipping issues are the main driver for this market and the situation has improved slightly in some zones, other zones are still almost impossible to get a truck. Frankly it appears there is not much relief in the short term for this problem and until there is, this market will likely not show much if any downside. We did see one mill BC announcement curtailments next week and that news also was a catalyst for this market. We need to keep in the back of minds that there will be a price point where larger projects will be put on hold and Joe Blow does not want to pay the price to do his basement or garage.
Inflation and rising interest rates will be a concern in the months coming. Perhaps we could use a break in the pace of the market and perhaps mills could catch up on late shipments.
But right now this is wishful thinking as we are foot on the gas. Mill Files are now pushing into late March or early April in some cases.
Plywood….Not much change this week. Mills remain OTM with the odd offering popping up in certain markets. Pricing has been slowly climbing and do not be surprised to see that trend continue.
Mill files are late March early April but you can add 4-6 weeks on to that for shipping. Plywood thru out the system is scant and there are prems being paid for wood in the distribution system.
OSB………Supply remains tight here as well. Shipping is the main issue, mills are plugged with inventory (much of which is sold) we have seen some curtailments at OSB mills already, will there be more coming?
It is a strange market in the sense that OSB has been so hard to get that T/L inquires have slowed because buyers are frustrated by the lack of supply. Watch for the lack of supply to remain a problem and pricing to continue to increase over the next few weeks.
Please know that we are working hard to get stock to you in a timely fashion but some things are out of our control.
We appreciate your patience and support.
Have a great week.